Why did I save my first mock for two weekends before the Draft? As I’ve learned more-and-more about the draft process, I’ve grown an understanding that information between February to March to April to June changes nearly daily. The information that would have been useful a month ago wouldn’t be near as useful as it is now. Also, this is the latest we’ve really gone into the draft.
As for mock drafts themselves, they’re entertaining. They’re fun to write and work on, especially when talking to scouts and executives that you’ve spoken to briefly over the last half year and are now digging into their work – or should I say, what they’ll reveal about other’s work – and putting that information out to the public who thrive for it. In the long run, mock drafts aren’t as useful as you’d think. Sure, there is information that changes the structure of public image, but they don’t dictate the draft themselves.
So, with the draft just over two weeks away, here is my hard work from the past half week and I hope you enjoy.
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1. Baltimore Orioles – Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan HS (GA)
It’s about price and value. Jones is viewed, although not by consensus, as the top player in the draft and will merit such a price. The O’s are still looking at over a handful of options that would allow them to spend excess with their next few picks which may lead them to one of their other options, though the bonuses of their grouping may not alter their plans enough to go away from the top of the board with Jones. Termarr Johnson was the smoke last week, but it seems Kevin Parada is gaining traction as the new primary secondary option.
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2. Arizona Diamondbacks – Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater HS (OK)
Common belief is that if Baltimore passes on Jones, Arizona will take him. If not, they’ll have the volume of possible selections led by the other five top talents in this draft. Holliday is seen as the favorite for Arizona beyond Jones, though Brooks Lee seems like a discount option.
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3. Texas Rangers – Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
The Rangers will be holding out on the first two picks with hopes either Jones or Holliday gets to them. Parada is gaining steam towards the top of the draft and is right behind Jones and Holliday on Texas’ board, though I feel Elijah Green will be in play as well pending the first two picks.
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4. Pittsburgh Pirates – Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC
I’ve heard it’s a mix of Lee, Parada, and Cam Collier here with the two top prep options possible with some oddities occurring at the top of the draft. I believe it will come down to Lee or Collier with the latter now leading the charge.
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5. Washington Nationals – Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL)
Things have already started to unravel as there are so many outcomes at the top that you can begin interswapping names for each of the first six or seven picks. Parada has been the lengthy attached name to the Nats, so his range kind of ends here. There’s been attachment to Green with Washington, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they went the college route with Lee.
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6. Miami Marlins – Termarr Johnson, 2B, Mays HS (GA)
If Washington isn’t the floor for Parada, this is probably where the train stops. Both Johnson and Parada have suitors ahead of this which may land Jacob Berry at or near this pick. (Editor’s Note: Johnson is top of my personal board)
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7. Chicago Cubs – Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
It’s no secret the Cubs covet both Collier and Johnson, and there is a chance either or both could make it to this pick. If not, they could opt for the top talent available whether it be Lee or one of the other top seven.
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8. Minnesota Twins – Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech
Minnesota seems set to be in a holding pattern awaiting to see if one of the top seven fall an extra spot which is a highly likely scenario with how drafts tend to go. In this case where I play it a bit more safe with less opportunity of under slot deals it falls to either Cross or Berry, with Cross getting the edge.
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9. Kansas City Royals – Brock Porter, RHP, Orchard St. Mary’s HS (MI)
Not that there’s a reality of throwing darts at the board for professional organizations, this is where it will begin for me. I think the Royals are in a similar holding pattern to Minnesota waiting to see if a falling talents lands here, but if not it’s an obscurity as to what they will do. I do think this is the first place we could see a pitcher land though if there isn’t an obvious faller.
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10. Colorado Rockies – Jacob Berry, 1B/OF, Louisiana State
Going from my least confident pick to my most confident pick. This would be the floor for Berry but if he doesn’t make it to this pick, I believe it will be Cross and if he isn’t, I believe it will be Jordan Beck.
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11. New York Mets – Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman HS (NV)
With just two selections between their picks, the Mets have the opportunity to get creative. I believe they’ll go with the player at the top of their board with their first pick and look to save with their second unless they’re confident their top guy would make it two extra selections. I’ve heard Crawford attached to the Mets for awhile but there is enough of a chance he’s taken prior to this leading them to another high upside bet which would probably come with their second pick. This could be the first landing spot for a college arm, or if Porter falls, the first arm in general.
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12. Detroit Tigers – Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech
Similar to Colorado, I’m pretty confident here. Detroit was full hands-on deck for Jung deep into the season and I feel there’s a solid chance he’ll be available. If he’s not, it’s another potential first spot for college arms or the second tier of college bats.
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13. Los Angeles Angels – Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga
Word is still pitchers for the Angels, almost to guarantee, and pending what occurs ahead of them it’s still one of the first potential spots for an arm of any kind. They’ll have their surplus to pick from as few, if any, will go ahead of them. From the college crop it’s between Hughes and Justin Campbell, but don’t rule out a prep arm like Brandon Barriera, Robby Snelling, or Dylan Lesko.
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14. New York Mets – Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford HS (GA)
I’m leery on the Mets not splitting their two picks with an upside prep and polished college player but I’m also pretty certain Lesko is deep in their mix as he is the highest upside arm despite Tommy John surgery this spring. Lesko would be in play for the next four picks, and I don’t doubt he’ll land somewhere in this range. If they do opt for the college route, I’d look at one of the falling hitters (which they may take with their first pick) or Daniel Susac.
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15. San Diego Padres – Jett Williams, SS, Rockwall-Heath HS (TX)
Lesko is probably the biggest bet here though I’ve heard the Padres are planning on taking a hitter here. They’d love for Crawford to fall, and he might, but it looks like they’ll split their decision between Williams and Cole Young with Williams getting the edge. If none are available, Barriera or Snelling could sway them to pitching.
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16. Cleveland Guardians – Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage HS (FL)
Sticking to the draft model here. Young makes the most sense as an up-the-middle athlete with mass offensive upside and I’ll probably get burned for not putting him here but with Cleveland’s knack for youth and Young turning 19 two weeks after the draft I believe that will toy with the Guardians’ model. They’re attached the young-for-their-class group in the likes of Chase DeLauter, Williams, and Barriera.
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17. Philadelphia Phillies – Robby Snelling, LHP, McQueen HS (NV)
The Phillies are attached to similar names the Angels are tied to. If Porter or Lesko fall enough I could see this as their floor. If not, it’d be a selection from Barriera and Snelling or the college crop of Hughes, Campbell, or Connor Hjerpe.
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18. Cincinnati Reds – Cole Young, SS, North Alleghany HS (PA)
Now we’re really throwing darts. Plenty of the names mentioned ahead could land here with some seeing their floor here. College bats like Susac and Zach Neto wouldn’t surprise me.
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19. Oakland Athletics – Daniel Susac, C, Arizona
College bats for this pick, college arms for the next, and a blend of college for the following. Susac gets the edge over Neto, but you could flip flop them. DeLauter and Drew Gilbert are other options.
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20. Atlanta Braves – Justin Campbell, RHP, Oklahoma State
There aren’t many clubs ahead of them that seem destined to take a college arm so Atlanta may have their pick of the litter. Hughes is regularly noted as the best college arm, but there’s plenty who could dethrone him by opinion including Campbell, Hjerpe, and the biggest riser of the bunch, Cade Horton.
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21. Seattle Mariners – Connor Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State
The same hitters for the A’s and same pitchers for the Braves are mentioned for the M’s. There is a flurry of potential prep hitters previously mentioned that may sway Seattle that direction.
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22. St. Louis Cardinals – Peyton Graham, SS, Oklahoma
I was told that people will be surprised how high Graham goes but shouldn’t be surprised based on his skillset. This is the first spot I’ve heard Graham’s name attached though St. Louis tends to let the draft come to them so any of the previously mentioned names could be higher on their board.
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23. Toronto Blue Jays – Zach Neto, SS, Campbell
There’s just as strong a chance of Neto getting here as there is him not. Toronto is looking at bats and his name is oft mentioned as being near his floor. DeLauter is once again an option, as is Gilbert and prepster, Tucker Toman.
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24. Boston Red Sox – Tucker Toman, 3B, Hammond HS (SC)
Knowingly, pitchers are going to be selected more often early than expected with their general demographic being the weak point in the draft and teams will rush to take the ones they see suitable that they wouldn’t attain later in the draft which makes any of the hitters from the nine picks prior potentially (and likely) available at this point. You can interchange most of them over this span of picks and into the next few.
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25. New York Yankees – Jordan Beck, OF, Tennessee
We’re into the third tier of college hitters at this point. Beck, Beavers, Sterlin Thompson, and most of the aforementioned hitters make sense here.
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26. Chicago White Sox – Dylan Beavers, OF, California
It doesn’t bear repeating. Another hitter that is likely different from the one mentioned.
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27. Milwaukee Brewers – Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison
This one is a bit more data and model based though I question whether he makes it beyond the teams ahead.
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28. Houston Astros – Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama
Using data as one of their drawing traits, Prielipp, and pitchers similar to him may have a knock due to the limited info lost to injuries but there’s also new and useful data to these arms as well thanks to the draft combine and private bullpen sessions. There’s a flurry of players here and I’m just going on instinct.
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29. Tampa Bay Rays – Jacob Miller, RHP, Liberty Union HS (OH)
Tampa likes big-velocity and well-defined breaking pitches. I see them going with an upside gamble here.
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30. San Francisco Giants – Brock Jones, OF, Stanford
It’s more likely that with the reciprocate of arms going somewhere in the teens and 20’s, there will be a college hitter available for the Giants. For now, I’ll hold firm on a local college bat but I’ve lost confidence well before this in any selections.
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COMPENSATION PICKS
31. Colorado Rockies – Cayden Wallace, 3B, Arkansas
32. Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma
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COMPETITIVE BALANCE ROUND A
33. Baltimore Orioles – Jackson Ferris, LHP, IMG Academy (FL)
34. Arizona Diamondbacks – Drew Gilbert, OF, Tennessee
35. Kansas City Royals – Kumar Rocker, RHP, Tri-City (Frontier League)
36. Pittsburgh Pirates – Jacob Melton, OF, Oregon State
37. Cleveland Guardians – Thomas Harrington, RHP, Campbell
38. Colorado Rockies – Dalton Rushing, C, Louisville
39. San Diego Padres – Carson Whisenhunt, LHP, East Carolina
40. Los Angeles Dodgers – Peyton Pallette, RHP, Arkansas
41. Boston Red Sox – Sterlin Thompson, OF, Florida
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